The Courage to Trust the Data and Yourself

Last week the Florida Gators Men’s Basketball team won the NCAA National Championship led by a 39 year old coach that had never won an NCAA tournament game, a roster with zero players listed in the ESPN Top 100 recruiting rankings (the first National Champion ever of the modern era), and with a Most Outstanding Player that was a zero star recruit coming out of high school.

In the final three games they played in the NCAA Tournament, they trailed by 9 or more points in every single game yet still managed to find a way to win.

Their remarkable run in large part was driven by analytics, and having the courage to trust the data, even when it goes against conventional wisdom. In the Elite Eight against Texas Tech, Florida was down 9 points with just under 3 minutes left. The Gators had struggled much of the night, but tried a strategy very few coaches would have the guts to do, fouling quickly to stop the clock and buy his team more time. The worst case scenario Texas Tech would get 2 points, while the Gators would try to hit three point shots on the other end. The best case scenario? What ended up happening:

Screenshot from ESPN

In just over a minute of game time, the Gators hit three 3 point shots in a row, while both Texas Tech players missed their first free throw. Just like that, tie game.

Florida had not only the courage but a comfort level with their understanding of the data for both teams to not only try that strategy, but to execute it.

***

In the political world data has transformed over the last two decades, and with it so has the way campaigns are run. Data collection and refinement has become its own industry, with millions of dollars being spent on it every cycle in North Carolina alone. Campaigns and caucuses develop huge plans around this data, and understanding how and when to apply that data has never been more important.

It’s easy when sketching out a game plan in the office on a Monday morning before political messaging has begun in earnest to say “this is our plan, and we’re going to stick to it.” It’s harder to stick to that plan once the action begins, though. Maybe the other campaign is aggressively canvassing a candidate’s neighborhood, or maybe your opponent has a strong message that is changing the tenor of the race. Knowing how and when to apply the data in the heat of battle is critical to the success of the campaign.

Too many campaigns come up short because they misunderstand what the moment calls for. Sometimes that means going on the offensive with contrast ads, even if conventional wisdom says something else. On top of that, there is no shortage of armchair quarterbacks trying to give you advice on how THEY would do it, often giving conflicting advice.

Just like a successful basketball team, successful campaigns build their team well, trust their team to execute, and know when to adjust the game plan.